PGA Championship May 15th – 18th – Tap to Enter!

1 — Composite short-list (top 20)

1. Scottie Scheffler — OWGR 1; Last-5 average finish 4; SG T2G +1.95; SG APP +1.22; SG PUTT +0.05; consensus odds 9/2
2. Rory McIlroy — OWGR 2; Last-5 5; SG T2G +1.73; SG APP +0.85; SG PUTT +0.40; odds 5/1
3. Xander Schauffele — OWGR 3; Last-5 8; SG T2G +1.70; SG APP +0.80; SG PUTT +0.35; odds 12/1
4. Collin Morikawa — OWGR 4; Last-5 10; SG T2G +1.50; SG APP +1.10; SG PUTT –0.05; odds 14/1
5. Bryson DeChambeau — OWGR 182; Last-5 6; SG T2G +1.60; SG APP +0.50; SG PUTT +0.20; odds 12/1
6. Jon Rahm — OWGR 8; Last-5 7; SG T2G +1.55; SG APP +0.90; SG PUTT +0.10; odds 18/1
7. Viktor Hovland — OWGR 6; Last-5 12; SG T2G +1.45; SG APP +0.95; SG PUTT –0.10; odds 34/1
8. Patrick Cantlay — OWGR 7; Last-5 11; SG T2G +1.40; SG APP +0.80; SG PUTT +0.05; odds 28/1
9. Ludvig Åberg — OWGR 9; Last-5 9; SG T2G +1.35; SG APP +0.75; SG PUTT +0.15; odds 12/1
10. Brooks Koepka — OWGR 25; Last-5 13; SG T2G +1.30; SG APP +0.60; SG PUTT +0.20; odds 22/1
11. Max Homa — OWGR 11; Last-5 14; SG T2G +1.25; SG APP +0.65; SG PUTT +0.30; odds 28/1
12. Jordan Spieth — OWGR 12; Last-5 15; SG T2G +1.10; SG APP +0.55; SG PUTT +0.45; odds 40/1
13. Justin Thomas — OWGR 13; Last-5 16; SG T2G +1.15; SG APP +0.70; SG PUTT –0.20; odds 20/1
14. Cameron Smith — OWGR 18; Last-5 12; SG T2G +0.90; SG APP +0.40; SG PUTT +0.80; odds 40/1
15. Sungjae Im — OWGR 16; Last-5 18; SG T2G +1.05; SG APP +0.65; SG PUTT +0.10; odds 40/1
16. Tom Kim — OWGR 17; Last-5 20; SG T2G +1.00; SG APP +0.70; SG PUTT +0.05; odds 55/1
17. Matt Fitzpatrick — OWGR 19; Last-5 21; SG T2G +0.95; SG APP +0.50; SG PUTT +0.35; odds 55/1
18. Tyrrell Hatton — OWGR 20; Last-5 19; SG T2G +1.10; SG APP +0.80; SG PUTT –0.05; odds 50/1
19. Tommy Fleetwood — OWGR 21; Last-5 22; SG T2G +0.90; SG APP +0.60; SG PUTT +0.15; odds 40/1
20. Shane Lowry — OWGR 23; Last-5 25; SG T2G +0.85; SG APP +0.55; SG PUTT +0.05; odds 50/1

2 — Five primary contenders

Scottie Scheffler — OWGR 1 — 9/2. Key recent results: CJ Cup win and two further top-3s; course history: four top-10s in five PGAs; SG profile: +1.95 T2G with neutral putting; contention case: unmatched ball-striking plus forecasted 12-15 mph winds amplify his edge.

Rory McIlroy — OWGR 2 — 5/1. Key recent results: Masters victory, T3 RBC Heritage; course history: four wins at Quail including 2017 PGA; SG profile: +1.73 T2G and putting trend positive; contention case: high-draw driver fits the “Green Mile” finish and confidence is peaking.

Xander Schauffele — OWGR 3 — 12/1. Key recent results: T8 Masters, runner-up Truist; course history: defending PGA champion with solid Quail record; SG profile: +1.70 T2G balanced by tidy short-game; contention case: excels on 450-yard par-4s and handles firm, fast greens calmly.

Collin Morikawa — OWGR 4 — 14/1. Key recent results: 4-T9-T6 streak since March; course history: 8th 2023 Wells Fargo; SG profile: #1 irons at +1.10 APP but putting slightly negative; contention case: precision mid-irons neutralise Quail’s length and light rough reduces penalty for shorter drives.

Bryson DeChambeau — OWGR 182 — 12/1. Key recent results: LIV Korea win, 2nd 2024 PGA; course history: gained +2.3 SG OTT at 2023 Wells Fargo; SG profile: +1.6 T2G, top driver; contention case: dry forecast keeps the course long and firm where his 200-mph ball speed dominates par-5s.

3 — High-value outsider

Joaquin Niemann — OWGR 40 — 30/1. Key recent results: LIV Mayakoba win, T5 Masters; course history: 6th 2021 Wells Fargo; SG profile: +1.3 T2G with improving +0.3 PUTT; contention case: penetrating flight handles Quail’s cross-winds and his 150-200 yd iron bucket gains +0.5 SG, offering a realistic win path at generous 30/1.

4 — Strategic summary

Best value among the favourites is Schauffele at 12/1, priced at an implied 7 % win chance while DataGolf rates him closer to 9 %; that two-point edge is attractive for outright and each-way bets. The highest-risk, highest-reward play is Niemann at 30/1: his recent LIV win and positive SG trend give a true-win probability near 3 % versus the market’s 2.5 %. Strong each-way opportunities also lie with Morikawa (14/1) whose iron consistency raises his floor, while head-to-head matchups favour Scheffler over McIlroy owing to a clear tee-to-green delta and Åberg over Cantlay on the bomber-friendly par-5s. If Thursday afternoon winds exceed 20 mph, live markets should tilt further toward carry-distance stars like DeChambeau and Koepka.