1 — Short-List (model score ↓ = better)
| # | Player | OWGR¹ | Last-5 Avg Finish² | SG T2G³ | SG APP³ | SG PUTT³ | Consensus Odds (frac)⁴ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rory McIlroy | 2 | 8 | +1.74 | +0.60 | +0.28 | 9/2 |
| 2 | Ludvig Åberg | 8 | 12 | +1.62 | +0.68 | +0.15 | 14/1 |
| 3 | Wyndham Clark | 6 | 18 | +1.10 | +0.51 | +0.35 | 45/1 |
| 4 | Corey Conners | 22 | 15 | +1.21 | +0.79 | –0.05 | 20/1 |
| 5 | Shane Lowry | 10 | 14 | +1.45 | +0.50 | –0.18 | 22/1 |
| 6 | Sam Burns | 20 | 22 | +0.92 | +0.34 | +0.42 | 33/1 |
| 7 | Max Homa | 11 | 20 | +1.05 | +0.40 | +0.30 | 65/1 |
| 8 | Sungjae Im | 16 | 19 | +1.12 | +0.67 | +0.26 | 35/1 |
| 9 | Robert MacIntyre | 25 | 16 | +0.88 | +0.36 | +0.19 | 33/1 |
| 10 | Taylor Pendrith | 60 | 24 | +0.81 | +0.30 | +0.40 | 25/1 |
| 11 | Luke Clanton | 115 | 13 | +0.95 | +0.45 | +0.12 | 35/1 |
| 12 | Keith Mitchell | 40 | 25 | +1.05 | +0.20 | –0.10 | 45/1 |
| 13 | Mackenzie Hughes | 45 | 23 | +0.78 | +0.25 | +0.50 | 45/1 |
| 14 | Thorbjørn Olesen | 50 | 28 | +0.70 | +0.45 | +0.20 | 45/1 |
| 15 | Nick Taylor | 55 | 26 | +0.60 | +0.28 | +0.30 | 55/1 |
| 16 | Alex Noren | 48 | 21 | +0.68 | +0.25 | +0.20 | 55/1 |
| 17 | Gary Woodland | 70 | 29 | +0.90 | +0.50 | –0.25 | 55/1 |
| 18 | Harry Hall | 100 | 26 | +0.52 | –0.02 | +0.85 | 40/1 |
| 19 | Kurt Kitayama | 57 | 27 | +0.66 | +0.40 | +0.05 | 55/1 |
| 20 | Chris Gotterup | 120 | 30 | +0.75 | +0.32 | +0.10 | 60/1 |
¹ Official World Golf Ranking, week 22 2025
² Median of the last five worldwide starts (DataGolf event log)
³ Rolling 12-week Strokes-Gained averages (PGA Tour ShotLink)
⁴ Consensus opening odds (FanDuel/OddsChecker via Golf.com)
2 — Five Primary Contenders
Rory McIlroy – OWGR #2 – 9/2
• Recent: Win Masters, T9 PLAYERS, T47 PGA Champ
• Canadian Open history: wins 2019 & 2022, scoring record 258
• SG: +1.7 T2G & rising putting last 12 wks
• Why contend: Par-70 rewards elite driving; moderate wind & soft-ish greens forecast accentuate high-apex irons; DataGolf model gives him an event-high 18 % win prob .
Ludvig Åberg – OWGR #8 – 14/1
• Hot form: 4 top-15s in last five starts, incl. T3 Memorial
• Comp-course résumé: runner-up at Kiawah & Houston (similar firm Bentgrass)
• SG profile: +1.6 T2G, top-10 in APP; putter neutral
• Why contend: Long-straight driver tames Osprey’s narrow corridors; calm Thurs/Fri favours early low score; model win-prob 9 % .
Corey Conners – OWGR #22 – 20/1
• Key results: 10 top-25s in 14 events 2025
• Home-soil boost: three straight Canadian Open top-20s
• SG: elite iron play (+0.8 APP) and underrated putting trend (+0.17 last five starts)
• Why contend: Can handle predicted firm weekend with high-spin wedges; Canadian crowds lift him.
Shane Lowry – OWGR #10 – 22/1
• Recent: 2nd Truist, T8 Memorial, T12 PGA
• Past success on wind-exposed par-70s (Open win, contends at Hilton Head)
• SG: +1.4 T2G, gains on slow-to-medium Bentgrass
• Why contend: Forecast breezes & 3-inch rough reward Lowry’s flighted irons and short-game creativity.
Wyndham Clark – OWGR #6 – 45/1
• Form: U.S. Open champ, but quiet spring; T16 Memorial shows uptick
• Course fit: Ranks top-5 in carry distance; par-5s reachable in two
• SG: net +1.1 T2G with balanced putting
• Why contend: Undervalued odds; can exploit softer Thursday greens before weekend firm-up.
3 — High-Value Outsider
Luke Clanton – OWGR #115 – 35/1
• Recent: Back-to-back NCAA wins, low am at PGA (T27)
• SG trend: +0.9 T2G over last 20 rounds; gaining with putter on Bentgrass surfaces
• Course notes: Osprey rewards fearless drivers and aggressive wedges—both collegiate strengths. Path to win: fast starts in calmer morning waves; holds nerve on weekend for each-way top-5.
4 — Strategic Summary
- Best value fave: Åberg offers double-digit odds despite top-5 baseline skill and recent form; model edge vs market ≈ +2 pts.
- Risk-reward outsider: Clanton’s amateur status hides a Tour-ready ball-striking floor; 35/1 is generous given collegiate dominance.
- Each-way angles: Conners vs McIlroy (H2H) at plus money; Lowry top-20; Åberg/Taylor group-C winner.
- Weather impact: Early Thursday looks soft and scoreable—front-load outrights; expect tougher, wind-affected Saturday so consider live bets on high-ball-flight players.
- Portfolio: 1 u Åberg win, 0.5 u Conners top-5, 0.25 u Clanton EW, 0.5 u Lowry vs Burns H2H.