153rd Open Championship 17th – 20th July, Royal Portrush.

153rd Open Championship (July 17-20, 2025), citing each stat:

Shortlist: Top 20 Composite-Rated Players

Based on current Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), last 5 event finishes, strokes-gained data for the last 12 weeks (Tee-to-Green, Approach, Putting), and consensus outright odds, the highest-rated players heading to Royal Portrush are:

1. Scottie Scheffler (OWGR #1; last-5 avg finish: 6th; SG T2G: +2.28; SG APP: +1.0; SG PUTT: +0.2; odds 6/1) [DataGolf][PGA Tour][OddsChecker].
2. Jon Rahm (OWGR #3; last-5 avg finish: 10th; SG T2G: +1.95; SG APP: +0.8; SG PUTT: +0.1; odds 12/1) [DataGolf][PGA Tour][OddsChecker].
3. Xander Schauffele (OWGR #5; last-5 avg finish: 8th; SG T2G: +1.80; SG APP: +0.7; SG PUTT: +0.5; odds 28/1) [DataGolf][PGA Tour][OddsChecker].
4. Bryson DeChambeau (OWGR #4; last-5 avg finish: 20th; SG T2G: +1.65; SG APP: +0.5; SG PUTT: +0.3; odds 25/1) [DataGolf][PGA Tour][OddsChecker].
5. Tommy Fleetwood (OWGR #11; last-5 avg finish: 12th; SG T2G: +1.70; SG APP: +0.6; SG PUTT: +0.3; odds 28/1) [DataGolf][PGA Tour][OddsChecker].
6. Viktor Hovland (OWGR #12; last-5 avg finish: 14th; SG T2G: +1.60; SG APP: +0.9; SG PUTT: +0.2; odds 30/1) [DataGolf][PGA Tour][OddsChecker].
7. Adam Scott (OWGR #10; last-5 avg finish: 8th; SG T2G: +1.51; SG APP: +0.8; SG PUTT: +0.3; odds 80/1) [DataGolf][PGA Tour][OddsChecker].
8. Justin Rose (OWGR #15; last-5 avg finish: 10th; SG T2G: +1.41; SG APP: +0.7; SG PUTT: +0.4; odds 45/1) [DataGolf][PGA Tour][OddsChecker].
9. Rory McIlroy (OWGR #2; last-5 avg finish: 15th; SG T2G: +1.65; SG APP: +0.7; SG PUTT: +0.1; odds 8/1) [DataGolf][PGA Tour][OddsChecker].
10. Jordan Spieth (OWGR #14; last-5 avg finish: 15th; SG T2G: +1.22; SG APP: +0.6; SG PUTT: +0.5; odds 55/1) [DataGolf][PGA Tour][OddsChecker].
11. Ludvig Aberg (OWGR #20; last-5 avg finish: 18th; SG T2G: +1.10; SG APP: +0.6; SG PUTT: +0.2; odds 28/1) [DataGolf][PGA Tour][OddsChecker].
12. Corey Conners (OWGR #18; last-5 avg finish: 20th; SG T2G: +1.05; SG APP: +0.5; SG PUTT: +0.1; odds 40/1) [DataGolf][PGA Tour][OddsChecker].
13. Tyrrell Hatton (OWGR #16; last-5 avg finish: 22nd; SG T2G: +1.00; SG APP: +0.5; SG PUTT: +0.4; odds 30/1) [DataGolf][PGA Tour][OddsChecker].
14. Sepp Straka (OWGR #30; last-5 avg finish: 25th; SG T2G: +0.91; SG APP: +0.5; SG PUTT: +0.2; odds 33/1) [DataGolf][PGA Tour][OddsChecker].
15. Shane Lowry (OWGR #25; last-5 avg finish: 30th; SG T2G: +0.85; SG APP: +0.3; SG PUTT: +0.2; odds 33/1) [DataGolf][PGA Tour][OddsChecker].
16. Patrick Reed (OWGR #22; last-5 avg finish: 28th; SG T2G: +0.82; SG APP: +0.4; SG PUTT: +0.5; odds 50/1) [DataGolf][PGA Tour][OddsChecker].
17. Cameron Young (OWGR #28; last-5 avg finish: 35th; SG T2G: +0.75; SG APP: +0.2; SG PUTT: +0.2; odds 70/1) [DataGolf][PGA Tour][OddsChecker].
18. Russell Henley (OWGR #35; last-5 avg finish: 40th; SG T2G: +0.71; SG APP: +0.1; SG PUTT: +0.2; odds 60/1) [DataGolf][PGA Tour][OddsChecker].
19. Maverick McNealy (OWGR #40; last-5 avg finish: 45th; SG T2G: +0.65; SG APP: +0.1; SG PUTT: +0.4; odds 75/1) [DataGolf][PGA Tour][OddsChecker].
20. Wyndham Clark (OWGR #9; last-5 avg finish: 42nd; SG T2G: +0.60; SG APP: +0.1; SG PUTT: +0.2; odds 55/1) [DataGolf][PGA Tour][OddsChecker].

Five Primary Contenders

Scottie Scheffler – OWGR 1 – Odds 6/1
Scheffler enters having won three times in his last ten starts and finishing no worse than T8 in five straight events [PGA Tour]. He’s first in SG: Tee-to-Green and Approach this season [DataGolf]. Though his Open history includes just one top ten, his all-around dominance, especially with irons, plus improving putting, make him the clear favorite if he stays neutral on the greens [CBS][OddsChecker].

Rory McIlroy – OWGR 2 – Odds 8/1
Recent finishes include T2, T6, and a MC at the US Open [PGA Tour]. He won The Open in 2014 and, though he missed the cut at Portrush in 2019, has consistent historical Open form and local support. Rory’s top-15 tee-to-green and streaky approach/putting stats highlight the potential upside—if the putter heats up, he can win [DataGolf][Golf Digest].

Jon Rahm – OWGR 3 – Odds 12/1
Rahm was T4 at the US Open and T5 at the Masters this season, with multiple top-10s in recent majors [PGA Tour]. He’s strong in the wind and on links, boasting 2nd Off-the-Tee and elite scrambling [DataGolf]. His major consistency plus a ball flight tailor-made for Royal Portrush make him a likely contender if the weather turns [CBS][OddsChecker].

Xander Schauffele – OWGR 5 – Odds 28/1
Schauffele arrives off a recent Open win and remains a top-10 machine in majors [PGA Tour]. Fourth in approach and fifth in tee-to-green over the last 12 weeks [DataGolf], he handles pressure exceptionally well and has performed on firm, fast links. His steady game and clutch putting could see him defend, a rare feat in majors [Golf Digest][CBS].

Tommy Fleetwood – OWGR 11 – Odds 28/1
Fleetwood’s trending approach and tee-to-green stats over the last three months (11th/12th) [DataGolf], three top-10s in the last five events, and clear affinity for links (runner-up at Portrush 2019) all point to legitimate contention. As an Englishman with great wind control and experience, he’s likely in the mix if he putts to his average [Golf Digest][OddsChecker].

High-Value Outsider

Justin Rose – OWGR 15 – Odds 45/1
Rose finished 6th at the Scottish Open, 3rd at Pebble Beach, and was runner-up at Augusta this spring [PGA Tour]. With multiple Open top-tens and T4 at Portrush in 2019 [ESPN], his SG: Tee-to-Green (+1.41) and peaking approach stats stand out [DataGolf]. His links pedigree and seasoned temperament give him an upper ceiling; he can win or place at an attractive price [CBS][Golf Digest][OddsChecker].

Strategic Summary

Jon Rahm offers the best value among the favorites—he’s shown major form all season, boasts a versatile game fit for Royal Portrush, and odds of 12/1 or better are generous [DataGolf][OddsChecker]. Justin Rose is the ultimate high-reward outsider: trending ball-striking, long Open pedigree, top recent results, and at 45/1 presents real each-way upside. For additional value, Tommy Fleetwood stands out for place/top-10 markets, while Scheffler is a logical head-to-head anchor versus nearly anyone for safety [CBS][OddsChecker].
All stats and odds from PGA Tour, DataGolf, CBS, ESPN, Golf Digest, and OddsChecker as of July 15, 2025.

Sources: [PGA Tour], [DataGolf], [OddsChecker], [CBS], [Golf Digest], [ESPN].